From horse and cart, to canal and barge, to rail and steam power, to the internal combustion engine and beyond, transportation has always brought about change. But not at such a pace as it is happening today. Technological advancement is continuing at a tremendous speed and its use in transportation is going ahead at full steam.

It is stated that the UK is on the pathway to a driverless future where people and goods are transported around the UK in autonomous vehicles. The date when fully autonomous vehicles are expected to be the majority on the road network is currently estimated to be by the year 2030, for full end-to-end journeys. From now until that year the belief is that the development of assisted vehicle technology to fully connected autonomous vehicles will take place.

The research documentation that is available from various sources leans on the optimistic approach whereby the benefits of additional safety, economic benefits and job creation are put forward as the main reasons for investment and development. One report suggests that there could be £51bn added to the economy, that GDP will increase by 1% as an impact, that there will be 320,000 additional jobs with an increase of 25,000 jobs in automotive manufacturing. It is suggested that 2,500 lives will be saved and 25,000 serious accidents prevented. These are huge forecasts. But there will be obstacles to overcome along the way, such as connectivity problems between vehicle to vehicle, cyber-attacks and hacking, industry software standardisation and compatibility expectations.

However, although the developments of this technology are indeed exciting and appear to offer huge benefits, what will be the social impact? This is a question for many to consider; Fleet Operators, Public Sector Organisations, Unions and Career advisors for example. Over 60% of goods are transported on UK roads by more than 285,000 LGV drivers. The van fleet of the UK is said to involve 3,471,200 LCVs with over 1,047,300 van drivers employed in construction, engineering, utilities and other trades. The National Careers Service estimates that there are 1,005,000 PCV drivers and the demand for qualified PCV drivers is set to increase to 1,030,000 by 2020. Then we have over 940,000 company car drivers. A staggering amount of vehicles and drivers involved in the day today transportation of goods and services.

Not to forget non-professional drivers. Drivers who purchase or lease vehicles for their own usage. Choosing vehicles based upon practicality, flexibility, independence, aspirational or status and environmental reasons. Vehicles are chosen based on looks, performance, road holding, driver appeal within the cost range that the budget and insurance will allow. Driving can be fun, a hobby, an enjoyable experience and an achievement, something that driverless transport cannot replace. It could be said that autonomous vehicles turn drivers into goods, to be delivered to a destination, just another package to be moved around. Dehumanised technology dehumanising drivers.

Finally, what of duty of care, health and safety, accountability? If there is an accident between two autonomous vehicles, who or what will be responsible? The occupier of the vehicle, the manufacturer, the software provider? What kind of licencing will be required? Much thought and analysis needs to take place before we take this autonomous transportation journey.